The grid's inflection point requires bold, coordinated action.
For the first time in a generation, utility leaders are facing two simultaneous demand shocks: the exponential growth of data centers and the electrification of transportation. This isn't a distant forecast; it's a present-day reality pushing local distribution grids to their breaking point. It's a system-wide transformation that comes with incredibly high stakes. This inflection point presents a stark choice. One path leads to a reactive cycle of premature transformer failures, costly emergency upgrades, risky bets on slow-to-deliver centralized technologies and rising customer bills. The other leads to a more controlled, decentralized, optimized, and affordable grid. The difference lies in how we approach the largest new source of flexible load: the electric vehicle. But what if this new load wasn't a liability? What if the millions of EVs connecting to your grid were, in fact, a massive energy asset hiding in plain sight? What if their charging could be orchestrated to support the grid instead of straining it? This playbook provides the answer. It is a practical guide grounded in rigorous analysis, developed with research support from The Brattle Group and experts across the industry. Inside, you will find the Cost-Avoidance Stack, a framework that quantifies an annual $30 billion national opportunity by 2035 to lower energy costs, along with actionable roadmaps for both utilities and regulators to begin capturing this value today. This is our opportunity to unlock a true win-win, where we grow the size of our energy system, and reduce delivery costs for consumers, delivering 10% bill savings by 2035. We wrote this for you, the planners, program managers, regulators, and operators who are building our energy future. The challenge is significant, but the opportunity is greater. Let's build it together.
Turning a grid challenge into a $30 billion opportunity.
The North American grid is at a turning point. After two decades of flat load growth, demand is rising dramatically from electrified transportation, heating, and digital infrastructure, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasting a 15% increase in peak demand by 2030. In parallel, utility capital investment is soaring, with distribution system spending alone growing over 60% in less than a decade (Edison Electric Institute, 2022). Electric Vehicles represent a massive portion of this surge. While some forecasts predict a near-term slowdown, even conservative estimates project a 1400% increase to 60 million EVs by 2035 (Bloomberg, 2025), while others expect nearly 80 million (Edison Electric Institute, 2024). Without a strategy, this unmanaged load becomes a ticking clock on every local circuit.
VPPs deliver reliable power at costs up to 60% lower than traditional generators.
To meet rising demand, the U.S. has spent over $120 billion on new capacity in the last decade, primarily in gas-fired generators (Brattle, 2023). A more efficient and cost-effective solution is emerging: Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). A VPP is a portfolio of customer-owned devices, including EVs, that can be orchestrated to support the grid. According to analysis by Brattle, VPPs offer a superior path to resource adequacy because they are 40-60% less expensive than alternatives, require no utility capital expenditure on new generation, and can be deployed rapidly without lengthy interconnection queues.
The most powerful flexible load on the grid.
Utilities are increasingly working with Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), customer-owned devices like rooftop solar, home batteries, and smart thermostats. By digitally bundling these resources together, they can be operated as a single VPP to support the grid. While all DERs have a role to play in VPPs, EVs are emerging as the most powerful building block for several key reasons.
From dispatchable load to multi-billion-dollar grid asset.
The inherent flexibility of EVs is the foundation of their value, but it is managed charging that turns that potential into a dispatchable grid asset. In simple terms, managed charging is the technology that ensures vehicles charge at the best possible time for the grid and the lowest-cost period for the customer. Crucially, this optimization happens automatically in the background, without requiring the driver to change their behavior or sacrifice their mobility needs. However, not all managed charging is created equal. The industry is on a journey up a 'ladder' of maturity, with each step unlocking more value. Most utility programs today are on the first rung, simple behavioral programs that encourage off-peak charging. This approach can be an effective first step, but it can be costly at large-scale enrollment. Simplistic strategies like Time-of-Use (TOU) rates can actually accelerate grid problems by creating new, sharp 'timer peaks' as all EVs begin charging at the exact same moment. These new peaks can be even more damaging to local transformers than doing nothing at all. The true, multi-billion-dollar opportunity of the Cost-Avoidance Stack is only captured on the higher rungs through active, dynamic optimization. With less than 10% of U.S. residents having access to any utility managed charging program today, there is a massive opportunity not only to expand access but to leapfrog directly to the higher-value stages that turn EVs into powerful grid resources.
The 5 stages of managed charging · Unmanaged to V2X
Five stages. Each unlocks more of the stack.
Most utility programs today are on rung one: simple behavioral. The multi-billion-dollar value is on the higher rungs through active, dynamic optimization. Enter at the stage that matches where your program is today; add stages when you're ready. Same data, same audit trail at every step.
Avoided cost
Stage 2 · Smart Active (V1G) · per enrolled EV per year
Up to $575
Avoided across generation, transmission, distribution, energy, ancillaries and customer ops · ev.energy's Cost-Avoidance StackEvery session, dispatched against your grid signals.
This is where most utilities run their flagship managed charging program. Real-time charging control across enrolled vehicles, recalculated every 30 minutes against grid, price, and carbon signals. Dispatchable load when you need it, with ~80% compliance, no snap-back rebound, settlement-grade off-peak compliance per session. The platform answer the regulator wants to see.
Powered by Eve Programs + Eve Sync core + Eve Ops core
Over 800 U.S. utilities have already passed the 5% EV adoption breakeven.
For years, many utilities have viewed scaling managed charging as a future concern. A groundbreaking analysis from AES Indiana, however, has proven that assumption is dangerously outdated. It revealed that the 'EV tipping point', the moment the benefits of managed charging outweigh its costs, occurs at a surprisingly low 5% residential EV adoption (AES, Camus, 2024). The reality is that for over 800 U.S. utilities, this tipping point is not a future milestone; it's here. Waiting is no longer a viable strategy. Every day of inaction exposes utilities to a cascade of real and growing risks.
How managed charging lowers energy costs for all.
As we have established, utilities face the inevitable and rapid load growth of transportation electrification, driven by EVs. The temptation is to react with narrow fixes, focusing only on simple peak-shifting or isolated distribution-level problems. This approach, however, is incomplete. It addresses just a fraction of the challenge, makes things worse, and leaves billions in avoidable costs on the table by risking unnecessary capital spending today. To provide the roadmap for capturing these avoided costs, we partnered with the experts at The Brattle Group who provided research support to develop The Cost-Avoidance Stack. This data-driven framework is centered on active managed charging, the core engine of a VPP, which uses automated load optimization to respond to dynamic grid conditions. It quantifies how each actively managed EV can create up to $575 in annual avoided costs across six distinct layers of the grid. The full opportunity is only unlocked through a holistic view, combining behavioral, active, and bidirectional managed charging. Our analysis shows this represents a $30 billion annual cost-avoidance opportunity by 2035, the equivalent of a 10% reduction in energy costs or a $200 annual bill savings for every household in the country.
$145 to $575 per actively managed EV per year in avoided utility costs.
The table below breaks down each layer of the stack, providing a clear blueprint for turning your largest new liability into your most flexible and valuable asset. The avoided cost per EV is based on a one-directional, active managed program. Further value will be extracted with the rollout of V2G-capable vehicles and chargers. To understand how this works in a multi-tiered program across behavioral, active, and bidirectional stages, see the Unlocking the Full $30bn section.
The full Cost-Avoidance Potential of an actively managed EV
Stacked-value diagram · Six grid layers, modelled and sourced.
Stage · Asset
Stage 1
Behavioural
$/EV/yr
ev.energy's Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group
Stage 2
Active managed
$/EV/yr
ev.energy's Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group
Stages 4–5
Bidirectional (V2H + V2G/V2X)
$/EV/yr
ev.energy's Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group
Stage 3 · illustrative
Residential battery
$/battery/yr
Extrapolated from LBNL, CPUC ACC, APPA. Illustrative for multi-asset sizing.
Stage 3 · illustrative
Residential solar (~7kW)
$/system/yr
Extrapolated from NREL, LBNL, CPUC ACC. Illustrative for multi-asset sizing.
Average stackable cost-avoidance per active managed EV: $145 to $575 per year. Bidirectional-enabled managed charging extends this to up to $1,320 per EV per year.
EV-stack figures anchored on ev.energy's Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group. Per-EV ranges: Generation $60-$140, Transmission $20-$55, Distribution $5-$300, Energy Procurement $100-$180, Ancillary Services $0-$80, Customer Operations $7-$10.
This essential playbook from ev.energy and The Brattle Group underscores the $30 billion opportunity for vehicle-grid integration solutions. The Cost-Avoidance Stack offers a clear, data-driven roadmap for utilities and regulators to leverage EVs beyond mobility as critical, scalable grid resources. It's a must-read guide to building a more affordable, resilient, and reliable energy future.
Zach Woogen
·Executive Director, VGIC
From the power plant to the local circuit. Six tangible cost layers.
The previous section outlined the Cost-Avoidance Stack, a framework quantifying $145 to $575 in annual avoided costs per actively managed EV, including co-optimization derating. Now, let's explore a detailed breakdown of that framework, unpacking the mechanics, assumptions, and real-world examples behind each of the six layers. Our analysis moves beyond simple peak-shifting to provide a holistic view of the benefits unlocked by managed charging, from local distribution circuits to the bulk power system. The following six layers represent direct, tangible avoided costs to the utility system. They are the core components of the business case for managed charging, representing opportunities to defer or entirely avoid spending on grid infrastructure, from the power plant to the local circuit.
Automating EV charging optimization against a dynamic price signal builds beyond ToU rates. This hourly dynamic concept used in ChargeWise keeps things simple while transferring more value to customers than a ToU rate.
Justin Zagunis
·SVCE
0.1 to 2.5 tons of CO₂ avoided per EV per year.
While the approach to valuing carbon in the utility system varies widely by jurisdiction, the environmental value of managed charging is a critical societal benefit and an increasingly important driver for regulatory and policy goals. By shifting EV charging to align with periods of low-carbon generation, utilities can maximize the use of clean resources. This means absorbing abundant wind power overnight or solar power during the day; energy that might otherwise be curtailed. This directly reduces the reliance on fossil-fuel peaker plants to meet demand, lowering system-wide greenhouse gas emissions. These savings can be significant, estimating a reduction of 0.1 to 2.5 tons of CO₂ per EV per year, depending on the regional grid mix (DOE, NREL, 2021). Furthermore, by reducing the need to run the oldest, highest-emitting peaker plants during grid emergencies, managed charging also provides local air quality benefits by cutting NOx and particulate emissions. In markets with explicit clean-energy compensation, this becomes a real revenue stream. The Massachusetts Clean Peak Standard creates a financial incentive for utilities to use clean resources, including demand response from managed EV charging, to shift electricity demand away from peak periods. Clean energy resources that help meet this target earn 'Clean Peak Credits.' An EV participating in managed charging for 3,500 kWh per year can generate more than $115 in value, based on the Alternative Compliance Payment.
A virtuous cycle. Avoided costs fund participation; participation creates more savings.
The up-to-$575-per-EV in avoided costs detailed in the previous section is not just a number on a spreadsheet; it is the financial engine that powers a new, mutually-beneficial relationship between the utility and its customers. This creates a fundamental shift in the traditional utility model. Instead of sending money to out-of-state fuel providers or remote power plants, the avoided costs from managed charging allow utilities to directly invest in their own customers, compensating them for the value their EVs provide through smarter charging. The great news is that once a utility has incentivized EV customers to participate in managed charging, there should be plenty left over to help reduce the cost of energy for other ratepayers. This creates a true win-win-win: the grid gets access to lots of cheap flexible load, customers who provide that load are fairly compensated, and other ratepayers see a significant reduction in their cost of energy.
Four proven models, already in market.
Utilities have a wide range of proven options for structuring these incentives. The design can be tailored to meet specific regulatory environments and customer needs, from simple bill credits to dynamic rewards. This flexibility is key. Advanced managed charging platforms can decouple the complexity of grid optimization from the customer experience. A utility can offer a straightforward program to drivers while capturing the full, dynamic value of the Cost-Avoidance Stack on the back end. Here are four examples of successful incentive designs currently in the market.
Treat the platform like grid hardware. Capitalize the investment.
Unlocking the multi-billion-dollar opportunity detailed in the Cost-Avoidance Stack requires a smart investment in the programs that create value. These program costs are a small fraction of the capital-intensive grid upgrades they help avoid, and understanding their structure is key to building a successful business case. A critical shift: treating program costs as a capital investment. Traditionally, software and program administration have been treated as operational expenses (OPEX). However, a managed charging platform is a long-term, value-creating asset that enables grid management for a decade or more, much like a traditional piece of grid hardware. A growing number of jurisdictions are recognizing this, allowing utilities to capitalize these platform costs. This approach properly aligns the investment with the long-term grid benefits it creates and provides a more straightforward path to regulatory approval and funding. The payoff is a positive return from day one: the multi-layered avoided costs delivered by the program far outweigh the operational expenses. By financing the initial setup costs over the program's lifetime, just as with any traditional grid asset, utilities can achieve a positive net benefit for all ratepayers from day one.
$5bn + $13bn + $12bn = $30bn. No single program captures it all.
The Cost-Avoidance Stack represents the full potential value, but capturing it requires a flexible strategy. A 'one-size-fits-all' program will not work. To engage every EV driver, from those in single-family homes to apartment dwellers and fleet operators, a multi-layered portfolio approach is essential. This approach allows you to meet customers where they are, maximizing participation and building a foundation for deeper grid integration over time. Here's how the layers build on each other to capture the full, multi-billion-dollar opportunity.
From discovery to a grid-wide Virtual Power Plant.
The $30 billion annual opportunity by 2035 from the Cost-Avoidance Stack is not an idea for tomorrow; it is achievable with the tools and technologies available today, and realizing it requires action today. Focused, parallel action must come from the two key groups who operate and shape our grid: utilities and regulators. The journey from concept to a grid-wide asset doesn't require a leap of faith; it requires a practical roadmap. Here's how your utility can begin today, using the teams and tools you already have to unlock the value of the Cost-Avoidance Stack, one step at a time. While presented in steps, this roadmap is a flexible guide, not a rigid sequence. Depending on your utility's starting point and strategic priorities, some steps may be pursued in parallel or in a different order.
Four principles regulators can adopt today.
To move beyond small pilots, regulators can provide the certainty and incentives needed for utilities to invest at scale. This isn't about rewriting the rulebook from scratch, but about adopting modern principles that foster an open, equitable, and effective ecosystem. The following recommendations provide a practical path forward. Inaction carries a growing cost. The policies explored here are not checkboxes, they are invitations. They encourage utilities and regulators to help create a future where managed charging isn't an exception, but a core system strategy, one that can scale equity, optimize investment, and support a smarter, more adaptive grid.
No silver bullet. A new way of thinking, built on three core principles.
The road to unlocking $30 billion in annual grid benefits is not about finding a single silver bullet. It's about a commitment to a new way of thinking, built on three core principles that have been proven throughout this playbook.
The next grid will not be built with wires alone. It will be built with trust, participation, and intelligent flexibility. Managed charging is how we get there. The opportunity is here. The moment is now.
Every electric vehicle is a dormant energy asset.
Every day without managed charging is a day of avoidable costs incurred, unnecessary grid stress, and growing inequity. The time for isolated pilots is over. The time for scale is now. The Cost-Avoidance Stack is no longer a hypothetical, it's a multi-billion-dollar opportunity, quantified and validated. The cost of inaction is equally real: unnecessary capital buildout, rising rates for all, and a widening gap between a utility and the customers it serves. This playbook is more than an analysis; it's an invitation to act. An invitation to utilities: follow the Utility Roadmap. Quantify your local opportunity, launch a targeted program, and begin capturing value from the very first layer of the stack. An invitation to regulators: embrace the Regulatory Roadmap and champion the policies that will unlock this value for everyone. An invitation to the entire energy ecosystem: let's build this future together.
Unlock the full potential of EV flexibility for your utility.
ev.energy exists to connect everyone to greener, cheaper, simpler EV charging, managing the world's EV charging, everywhere. ev.energy provides a scalable, inclusive, and proven end-to-end platform that turns electric vehicles and other distributed energy resources into flexible grid assets, unlocking real value for energy providers, customers, and the planet. With a global base of utility, vehicle OEM, and EVSE partners, ev.energy is the leading force in smart charging. Our intelligent platform makes managing EV charging better and delivers a clear return on your investment. We're not just a platform; we're your partner. With experience managing over 55 programs and coverage for 85% of EVs sold in the US, we bring the right expertise and technical maturity to ensure a perfect setup, smooth operation, and the results you need, without the headaches. Empower your utility to better serve customers, exceed regulatory mandates, and meet ambitious climate targets with the leading managed charging software platform.