Prepared for SDG&E · ev.energy with research support from The Brattle Group
The business case for managed charging, quantified.
A rigorous, data-grounded view of what active managed charging is worth to SDG&E, and how it differs from the demand-response programs that came before.
$30B
Annual cost-avoidance opportunity by 2035
$145–$575
Industry-modelled avoided cost per active managed EV / yr
6
Layers of grid cost avoided
~10%
Bill reduction nationwide by 2035
Figures from ev.energy’s Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group.
Why this is different
How active managed charging is different.
Earlier demand-response and simple time-of-use programs sit on the lowest rungs of the managed-charging ladder: voluntary, and dependent on sustained customer effort, so their load impact can be inconsistent. A simple time-of-use rate can also concentrate demand, with many EVs beginning to charge the moment a lower-priced window opens, which can place more strain on local transformers than leaving charging unmanaged.
Every session, dispatched against your grid signals.
This is where most utilities run their flagship managed charging program. Real-time charging control across enrolled vehicles, recalculated every 30 minutes against grid, price, and carbon signals. Dispatchable load when you need it, with ~80% compliance, no snap-back rebound, settlement-grade off-peak compliance per session. The platform answer the regulator wants to see.
Powered by Eve Programs + Eve Sync core + Eve Ops core
Active managed charging works differently. Every session is dispatched against your grid, price, and carbon signals and recalculated every 30 minutes. Around 80% compliance. No snap-back rebound. Settlement-grade off-peak compliance, session by session, automatic in the background, with no change asked of the driver.
Every 30 min
Charging re-optimized against grid signals
~80%
Compliance, settlement-grade per session
8–10 kWh
Shiftable energy per EV per day
EVs are plugged in around 14 hours a day but only need about 3 hours of charging, a wide, flexible window the platform manages for you.
What active managed charging is worth — and how we'd size it for SDG&E
Across the industry, the Cost-Avoidance Stack values an actively managed EV at $145–$575 a year across six grid layers, using public frameworks including CAISO capacity pricing and California's 2024 Avoided Cost Calculator. Sizing this precisely for SDG&E's territory is the first step of the pilot — the number we'd build together in the working session.
Grid layer
Avoided cost / EV / yr
Generation capacity
CAISO / PJM capacity prices
$60–$140
Transmission
California 2024 Avoided Cost Calculator + ConEd 2025 MCOS (50% derate)
$20–$55
Distribution
SEPA / ANL modeling
$5–$300
Energy procurement
$100–$180
Ancillary services
$0–$80
Customer operations
$7–$10
Total per active managed EV / year
$145–$575
ev.energy’s Cost-Avoidance Stack, developed with research support from The Brattle Group.
Illustrative industry range; inputs blend California and national sources. SDG&E-specific figures to be modelled in Phase 1.
$184M / year
Avoided system costs statewide by 2035, at California scale: residential, load-shifting only, before any V2G.
Source: The Brattle Group for GridLab, California’s Virtual Power Potential, 2024.
Already working in California.
95%
ChargeWise California
98% of charging shifted off-peak, versus 60–70% on a standard TOU rate. Dynamic hourly optimization moves more value to customers than a flat TOU rate can.
90%
MCE Sync
A dynamic reward of $0–$40 a month based on hourly energy prices. Customers opt in once; charging is optimized automatically.
Source: ev.energy California programs, as cited in The Brattle Group for GridLab, 2024.
Automating EV charging optimization against a dynamic price signal builds beyond ToU rates. This hourly dynamic concept used in ChargeWise keeps things simple while transferring more value to customers than a ToU rate.
Justin Zagunis
·SVCE
A pilot designed to scale, not to stall.
Treat this pilot as Phase 1 of a proven path to a Non-Wires Alternative: prove the business case, run a targeted pilot, then scale into a formal NWA. The same data and the same audit trail carry through every stage, nothing is rebuilt or thrown away as you grow.
It’s built to avoid “death by pilot.” Active managed charging is increasingly recognized as an NWA in resource and distribution planning, and expedited regulatory pathways exist to move proven programs forward quickly.
01
Business case
Quantify the opportunity for SDG&E’s territory
02
Targeted pilot
Prove value and customer experience
03
Scale to NWA
Formal, uncapped program
Same data. Same audit trail. Every stage.
Independent analysis notes that successful pilots too often stop at the pilot stage. The way around it is to run the pilot with a clear path to scale from the outset, reusing the same data and audit trail at each step.
Source: The Brattle Group for GridLab, California’s Virtual Power Potential, 2024.
Let's pressure-test the numbers together.
Book a working session with the ev.energy team to walk the business case for SDG&E's territory.
55+ programs across North America and Europe
Wood Mackenzie #1 EV VPP specialist (2024 & 2025)
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